Things keep getting curiouser and curiouser with the Well that Won't Die. In his presser this morning, Adm Allen announced that they are still trying to decide what to do about the relief well, the weak components on the old BOP, and how they're going to approach the relief well, which is still just sitting there, a tantilizing 3 1/2 feet from the blowout wellbore. Dithering seems a strong word, but one I'll now use. You'll recall that right after BP started the surprise "well integrity test" back in July, they announced the surprise "static kill", characterizing it as low pressure, low risk, and an effort to "stabilize" the well. They pumped that procedure on August 3rd, and, declaring the well "static", then pumped 500 barrels of cement announcing that the entire job went right down the casing and out into the formation. That was 11 days ago.
Since, BP and Adm Allen raised the ominous possibility that there was something mysterious going on in the annulus, the space between the production casing and the intermediate casing. Adm Allen has gone on and on about 1,000 barrels of oil in the annulus, "near ambient" pressure testing, rising pressure, falling pressure, holding pressure, and bleeding pressure, to the bewilderment of everyone, including me. Kent Wells, the star of the BP "Technical" McBriefing's, where no technical data is provided, and only few questions are taken (notice I didn't say answered), has been AWOL since his last appearance 6 days ago. The purpose of the "new ambient" pressure test is still unclear, but, after being hounded for over a week by the DailyKos Gulf Watchers, the Admiral compelled BP to release the BOP pressure readings, but BP left out basic information like starting point, whether the well is shut in at the surface or seafloor, the fluid in the riser, etc, so the data is pretty much useless, like most other information that's been disclosed.
Today, the Admiral admitted that there were three components in the the BOP stack that is of concern; we know which ones those are, since we've been talking about them for over a month. The weak components are the flex joint, right on top of the old stack, the riser adapter, and what they call the transition spool are all rated below the other components in the stack, between 5,000 psi to 6,000 psi maximum working pressure. In each of these procedures that BP has undertaken, the top kill, the well integrity test, the injectivity tests, and static kill, the pressures that BP announced actually exceeded the rated pressures of at least one of those components. After performing all of these machinations, they are now suddenly concerned about pressure on the BOP, and are actually talking about changing out the entire stack before completing the bottom kill. What?
All of this delay and dithering is confusing, at best. Pulling the stack at this point is even more concerning, especially with drill pipe and God know what all inside, including the casing hanger. Had they followed the original plan of set the capping stack, hooking up the risers that were supposed to be completed in mid-July, and producing the well to the surface while they were killing it from below, all of this new discussion would be moot. This static kill, where they really have no idea where the cement and mud went, has only complicated matters, created more uncertainty, and absolutely more delay. The Admiral is clearly weary with all of the questions, snapping at a reporter today who was asking for a timeline saying, "It will happen when I say it happens. Seems to me that he was a little late to the "going over the rated pressures" party, and is not happy about it.
In the meantime, we're watching the tropical weather news every day.
Cliff,
You know I'm not saying there is "no risk" to the relief well and never said it.. What I'm talking about is risk management with which you don't seem to have familiarity. The static kill blinded them because, since they don't know the condition of the casing, the hanger, or the packoff, they have no idea where the mud and cement went. You are probably unaware that there were huge loss circulation zones both above AND below the blowout zone. You are also probably unaware that those loss circulation zones and the shoe at the 9 7/8 liner at 17,100 are likely washed out. So, they don't know the actual condition of the well, therefore are blinded to what's actually going on down below. The well is plugged neither properly or legally, which you probably don't understand. You don't know if the well is full, and indeed BP has likely been pumping into the well trying to keep it full between the kicks we've seen. The gas you are seeing on the feeds, if you are watching, is coming from the well. The relief well is the only real kill, and the more they wait, the bigger the chance of tubular failure, failure of whatever partial kill they have in place now, weather, etc, etc, etc. Wells never get better, only worse.
You said, "Maybe they are working on a probe that can be fished through the riser into the BOP to check out the internal status of the BOP, wellhead and upper casing." My answer is, If a frog had wings, maybe he wouldn't bump his ass when he jumped. Irrelevant. Speculation.
Yes, collapsed casing can be swaged or milled out on occasion, but not from the top. If it's collapsed at the hanger, which is the most likely due to differentials, then that would be tough.
I'll overlook the smart ass "authority" comment. If you come back to me with something intelligent, I'll respond. If you're going to be a smart ass, then take a hike. I'm busy.
In answer to your response to my comment. Are you contending there is no risk to penetrating a live well with the drill bit?
I know how a relief well works. Exactly how did static kill blind them to anything. What are they seeing going on in the well from the relief well?
They stopped drilling the relief well, in part, because they encountered mud and cement from the static kill in the formations which confirmed that they had mud down to TD. That kind of reduces the need for a relief well. What they need is access to the wellbore.
Sure there may be issues with the BOP and casing. Definitiely can't tell from a relief well. If you got a safe BOP on the well and entered it with standard well mitigation tools you would know for sure what was there and could easily repair the damage. All you can do from the relief well is circulate fluids. If the well is already full what is the point.
How do you know what R&D may be going on as alternatives to the relief well.
Maybe they are working on a probe that can be fished through the riser into the BOP to check out the internal status of the BOP, wellhead and upper casing. It would be very helpful to know if the BOP could be opened up. Whether the casing hanger annular seal was in place or gone. Whether the casing hanger was still in its correct position, whether they could drift a plug through the BOP. Whether or not there was drill pipe in the way.
Maybe they are analyzing contingencies for retrieving the BOP and replacing it with a new BOP and full bore riser.
Collapsed casing can be milled out. Lost drill pipe can be fished. Poor cement bonds can be squeezed.
If your such an authority how about defining a better process. What is the point of the relief well at this time, and what is the rush.
So, Cliff - What do you think relief wells are for? Relief wells by definition are DESIGNED to drill into flowing wells. That's why they call them relief wells. You pump heavy mud into the wellbore to build hydrostatic. Mud volume is not an issue, never is, never was. By pumping the static kill, they blinded themselves from being able to see what's going on in the well.
BTW...You have information that the casing is not collapsed, and that they can get in to do squeeze jobs and and CBLs? That's amazing, since no one else does.
Exactly what is a problem about taking their time?
The article is dead wrong about the static kill making matters worse.
Without the static kill procedure the relief well would be tapping into a flowing well. A highly risky procedure where once engaged they have to kill the well or lose control of both wells. The mud volumes required to achieve this weren't well known and they would absolutely have been rushed to achieve the kill before they ran out of mud and cement or the weather went bad.
Now they have all the mud they need already spotted in place. The fact that they have the ability to take their time is proof of the value of the static kill.
If they can retrieve the BOP it accomplishes some significant advantages. The biggest being they will then have direct access to the wellbore from the top which gives them a lot more options for repairing the annulus because then they can run cement bond logs through the well bore establish where the annulus needs repair and then run squeeze jobs to repair it.
In addition, it removes the weak links of the stack discussed.
It will also bring to the surface one of the most important pieces of evidence for the investigation ongoing.
Removing the BOP is risky, and I would be surprised if the decide to do it. But I've no doubt that they are looking hard at the feasiblity of that process and how it can be engineered safely. They may even be manufacturing new specialized equipment to do it.
They accomplished their objective, which was to never allow the full flow of oil & gas to the surface, where accurate rates and pressures could be extrapolated to determine how much oil was released into the GOM.
I think we have transcended curiouser and curiouser and have gone through the looking glass.
Connect risers. Pump to ship. Reduces all pressures! DUH. Finish entry at bottom. Pump in mud followed by cement at bottom. Double duh!
Allen is not only an idiot he is dangerous. The whole Government team are more political than science. It is like Red October where a "political officer" is on-board to insure Stalin's insane orders are followed. BP has the Stalin role but the paying public has no torpedoes!
I hope that the regular media, is not bored about reporting on probably one of the biggest disaster that has happened in the US.
I would prefer to think it is because, they have been denied information and banned from reporting on this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXsmLMV1CrM
I may be ignorant here, but could it be that they do not want to permanatly kill the well so they can access it again to get to the oil that is there?
"BP's November Relief Wells"
(Why take a chance?)
Will this coming November be special or what?
Mid-term elections and a war with Iran;
And BP's relief wells to plug up Macondo
Soon after the end of the Salazar ban.
Why imperil good-byes to the drill moratorium?
Why put more deepwater drilling at risk?
After the ban who will care if the Gulf
Resembles a 10w30 crab bisque?
One thousand barrels of oil in the annulus
That BP claims Allen has made them seal in?
More mud in the bottom and where'll it pop out?
Kent Wells has gone AWOL to alert next of kin.
Now Allen sees problems with the 'flex joint' and 'riser
Adapter', and the blowout preventer's 'transition spool'.
With a little more pressure they could become gushers –
And they'd still lift the ban? He's not that big a fool.
Would you take a chance just to please Bobby Jindal
So he can take credit for more skimmer jobs?
How would Gibbs play to 'professional lefties'
If before the election they were seeing more globs?
Bob Carlson
www.politicalboondoggles.com
On Twitter @PBoondoggles
8/16/10
To 'After All This, NOW They're Worried About the BOP'
To 'BP Incompetence'
I am obsessed with checking the news websites every day for BP stories. Today -- BP wasn't mentioned on CNN, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Financial Times, Houston Chronicle or NPR.
The media is bored with this. I understand that planes are crashing, and Pakistan is flooding, and Zha Zha Gabor is on her death bed, and Angelina Jolie is probably adopting another baby from Ghana -- but COME ON!!!!!!!
And thus, we have a nation of people who believe that everything is hunky dory down in the Gulf. Lovely.
The Well That Will Not Die
Hey Bob,
Check out the following link for this fellow has come to a similar reaction to this well by calling it...
The Zombie Well
...and as we all know Zombies Never Die.
http://fintandunne.blogspot.com/2010/08/return-of-bp-zombie-well.html
Would it be safer to just leave it as is, even though it is not killed? Is there to much damage now to do anything?
It amazes me why anyone would take daily reports from BP, the people who created this mess.
I still cannot believe that anyone, including our officials, still believe what BP says. Letting BP be in charge of this baffles me. BP has made everyone, go in circles and upside down. Why would they allow BP to do this?
Could it be that to many officials are way to connected financially with the corporations?
Will the cap hold if they kill it from the bottom up?
Maybe it will never be killed, after all there is oil down there.
I thought they knew the BOP had problems?
The pressure has to be high, could this blow again? (maybe).
Could the sea floor burst, and a tsunami happen? (maybe)
Is there another broken well from BP somewhere? (maybe)
Is the Gulf a toxic waste, sea live and beaches contaminated? (probably)
Could gas, toxins, and radiation get into the air we breath, our crops, and the water we drink?(probably)
Marine life birds dying? (absolutely)
Most people realize that there are many problems and this is not going away anytime soon.
The rest of the people are listening to the regular media, who does not seem to be reporting what needs to be reported.
Strands of fish are laying across from one state to another. They are saying the water is to hot and the oxygen is low. HMMMM WHY...Raises hand and says probably because of what BP has done to the gulf that has caused it to heat up and why the oxygen levels are to low.
If you admit to something, then it is true. I don't think BP would want to admit to anything. It would cost BP and anyone who is involved with BP to much money, and they might be in to much trouble if they told the truth.
Not surprised that important papers are missing or that important information and tests are not told or done.
Looks like BP motto's are: Out of sight out of mind, keep everyone confused, admit nothing, keep costs down, get the oil, and lets get out of here even if we made matters worse.
I cannot thank the Professionals enough who ask all the right questions to them. Who contact them trying to get everyone to say and do what is right. Thank you all who is trying to make this disaster better, at least the best it can be. Also a thank you for those who are trying to give the public correct information.
Thanks again Bob.
eljefe, it seems apparent that BP's lawyers have hijacked Adm. Allen, also - please let us know if you see actual strings being pulled when he moves his arms and legs.