A Referendum on President Obama? Nope

Despite the screaming headline in the New York Post, the Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post, that "The Obama Magic Has Faded," last night's election results and exit polls tell a different story. A little analysis and perspective:

* In the race for Congress in the 23rd district of New York, Doug Hoffman, the darling of the far-right extremists, lost. Eljefebob has the analysis on this, so I'll move on to New Jersey and Virginia.

* In what Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour called a "major victory" and a "signal of the GOP's comeback" in the election for governor of New Jersey, keep this in mind:

"...don't forget that Corzine's downfall has been festering - independent of national trends - for the past 18 months; his approval rating began to tank in 2008 - in the middle of a historically successful year for national Democrats... Corzine's unpopularity going into Tuesday's election cannot be underestimated. The target of blame for the state's financial problems and high property taxes, Corzine's approval rating has consistently been in the high 30s to low 40s - since mid-2008."

* In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell's defeat of Democrat Creigh Deeds wasn't exactly an earthshaking event in the context of prior Virginia gubernatorial elections:

"There's a rather mysterious historical trend in Virginia - a state that always elects its governors the year following presidential elections - that the executive mansion goes to the party that just lost the White House. Republicans won after both of Bill Clinton's victories in the 90s and Democrats won after Bush 43's wins in 2000 and 2004."

* As for last night's contests being a referendum on President Obama, exit polls tell a different story:

"Per CNN, voters in Virginia did not see their state's gubernatorial race as an opportunity to voice opposition to Barack Obama. A 55 percent majority of voters said that the President was not a factor in their vote, and an additional 18 percent indicated their vote in Virginia was one of support in the President. Just 24 percent of voters indicated that their vote was one of opposition to President Obama. The numbers out of New Jersey are not terribly different, with 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama.

Chuck Todd reports that Barack Obama's approval rating among Virginia voters stands at 51 percent (just under the 52.6 percent of the vote he received in the state last November) and 57 percent in New Jersey (almost exactly the same as the 57.1 percent of the vote he earned in that state last November). In other words, exit polling indicates President Obama has not really lost supporters over the past year."

Back to the drawing board, Tea Party peeps.